Charles Alcock is managing editor of the AIN Media Group, having rejoined the company in 2019. He has been an aviation journalist since 1986, and previously worked for AIN from 1990 to 2017, most recently as editor-in-chief. His main focus is on covering new aviation technology and business models, as well as international news.
Having been raised in the London area, Alcock studied at the University of Manchester in the UK and earned an honors degree in Politics and Modern History. He speaks English and French, and some German.

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Charlotte Bailey

Charles Alcock

Airbus and Boeing are neatly aligned in their assessment of demand for new airliners over the next 20 years, with both having published new market forecasts on the eve of the 2025 Paris Air Show. The U.S. airframer is predicting just 180 more deliveries in this period than its European rival—43,600 versus 43,420.
The companies’ analysts are also in harmony as to the dominance of narrowbody jets, with Boeing predicting that 75% of its deliveries will be from the single-aisle 737 family and Airbus saying that 81% of demand will be for A320s and A220s. There is also consensus around the dominant role airlines in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions will play as dominant drivers of increased demand.
Embraer also published a new global market outlook report on Thursday, estimating deliveries of 10,500 jet and turboprop aircraft with fewer than 150 seats over the next two decades, and with a collective value of $680 billion. The Brazilian airframer sees North America and Europe still accounting for the lion’s share of new jets in this category, with 30.7% and 22.8%, respectively. By contrast, Asia-Pacific countries are expected to account for 36% of turboprop deliveries.
“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long-lasting,” said Arjan Meijer, Embraer’s president and CEO of commercial aviation. “In our first post-pandemic market outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow.”
Boeing’s analysis shows aircraft manufacturers not keeping pace with rising air transport traffic levels, which rose by 60% between 2012 and 2024, while deliveries over that period were down 5%. In their view, the global passenger fleet ended last year with a shortage of 1,500 airliners.
Looking ahead, the U.S. group now sees fleet replacement demand rising faster to account for 21,100 of the new aircraft to be delivered between now and 2044. Fleet growth accounts for the rest of the projected total, according to Boeing. Airbus projects that 18,930 of the airliners delivered through 2044 will be replacing aging equipment.
<h2>Tariff Impact&nbsp;in the Mix</h2>
Airbus analysts did take some account of the anticipated impact of the U.S. trade tariffs, concluding that this could lead to a small GDP dip this year and next before rebounding. Antonio Da Costa, the European airframer’s head of commercial aircraft market analysis and forecast, told reporters in a June 10 briefing that industry sentiment on this challenge seems to have improved since earlier in the year when President Donald Trump rolled out his tariff plan on the so-called Liberation Day (April 2).
“The impact has been baked into the forecast and we are expecting a minor correction apart from in North America, where there could be a [more serious] temporary impact,” he commented. “Our forecast does assume that the Liberation Day tariffs won’t have a Covid level impact on trade, but if that scenario took place, we would be talking about other scenarios [in terms of demand for airliners].”
While Airbus has lowered its forecasts from last year due to weakening global GDP, Da Costa said projections have remained “very much” in the same area as the “growth years of the 2010s.” An expanded middle class and growing urban population (1.5 billion and 1.2 billion people worldwide, respectively) are projected to help drive a continued demand for air travel, which is already typified by global load factors having risen from 73% in 2004 to 83% in 2024.
“Modest” traffic growth in the more mature markets of Europe and North America will see a shift of market share to the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. Airbus estimates these will eclipse North America and Europe to account for some 60% of global passenger share by 2044. 
<h2>Asia Leads the Charge</h2>
Within Asia, Airbus sees demand in China rising by around 5%, while its neighbor India is set to see even higher growth, up 8.9%, with today’s 0.1 annual flights per person set to increase fivefold by 2044. This builds on India’s tripling of domestic routes over the last decade, and with Vietnam’s capacity growth of seven and a half times, it displays a strong trajectory.
“That’s driven, of course, by the full service carriers, but also the entry into market of low cost carriers,” explained Joost Van Der Heijden, Airbus’s head of commercial aircraft marketing. The unprecedented growth within this sector led Airbus to underestimate the number of narrowbodies it would need to produce some 20 years back, with some predicted widebody growth instead diverted to the single-aisle sector. 
Over the next 20 years, Airbus estimates that Asia will require some 10,050 aircraft, around 81% of which will be narrowbody. The company also sees strong demand for the A330neo as a widebody well suited to supporting airlines developing new routes.
To respond to rising demand for narrowbodies, Airbus is preparing to open a second A320 production line in Toulouse around mid-2026. Despite Airbus having 40% of its projected deliveries for the next 20 years already on order, “there’s still a lot of runway ahead of us,” Da Costa said. 
The new A321XLR is another market growth driver, according to Airbus, allowing carriers to tap single-aisle economics on longer sectors that could connect another 1,100 viable city pairs. “What airlines need in this more dynamic world is versatility and flexibility,” Van Der Heijden maintained. “We see it having the capability to connect Europe with the Middle East or even India. And there’s a lot more potential going forward … between North America and Latin America, between India and the rest of Asia, or from Asia to the Pacific overall.” 
Additionally, Airbus sees the smaller A220 continuing to support more mature markets with moderate growth. This role could include opening new transcontinental sectors in the U.S., with a range also sufficient to connect multiple Asian city pairs.
Ultimately, with A320 family and A220 orders well above 50% of the market share, Airbus believes it has sized production capability to honor that demand, including an upcoming second line in Toulouse set to commence operation mid-2026. Despite Airbus having already contracted 40% of its deliveries for the next 20 years, “there’s still a lot of runway ahead of us,” concluded Da Costa.

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