Kerry Lynch stepped into the role of editor of the&nbsp;Aviation International News&nbsp;monthly magazine in May 2022 after serving with&nbsp;AIN&nbsp;for eight years. She joined&nbsp;AIN&nbsp;in December 2014 as a senior editor covering Washington and business aviation news. She has also served on Convention News teams, including as editor of&nbsp;HAI Convention News. Lynch previously spent 25 years with Aviation Week. During her time there, she reported for and later steered&nbsp;The Weekly of Business Aviation, oversaw business aviation content on the&nbsp;Aviation Week Intelligence Network, served on the&nbsp;Show News&nbsp;staff, and held roles as the Washington columnist for&nbsp;Business &amp; Commercial Aviation&nbsp;and&nbsp;Overhaul &amp; Maintenance&nbsp;monthly magazines. In 2021 she was honored with the National Business Aviation Association Platinum Wing Award for lifetime achievement in journalism and was the 2004 recipient of the National Air Transportation Association’s Aviation Journalism Excellence Award. She also has been a recipient of an Aerospace Media Award for business aviation (2022) and NBAA Gold Wing Award (2003, 2024). Lynch graduated from The Ohio State University with a bachelor of arts in journalism.

Editor, AIN monthly magazine

Kerry Lynch

With business aircraft OEM backlogs stabilizing at $55 billion and market optimism taking a sharp upturn in the third quarter, the latest JetNet IQ market forecast significantly scales up expectations over the next 10 years, projecting 9,700 aircraft valued at $335 billion will be delivered through 2034. This compares with a year ago, when the company had forecast shipments of 8,644 business jets valued at $262 billion through 2033.
Releasing its 10-year forecast and third-quarter survey results today at 2025 JetNet IQ Summit in Washington, D.C, JetNet IQ creator Rolland Vincent said, “We're&nbsp;looking at $55 billion backlog, and that's a couple of years of work. Do we have a demand problem in our industry?&nbsp;No. We have a supply problem.&nbsp;We have a workforce problem.&nbsp;But these are what we call good problems.”
JetNet anticipates large, ultra-long-range aircraft will represent nearly half—49.4%—of the dollar value but yet only 22.5% of the delivery volume. In terms of deliveries, light jets will take 19.5% market share, followed by super midsize jets at 17.1%. Even so, most of the backlog growth in recent years has come in the midsize and light end of the market, Vincent said.
Overall, the business jet fleet is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.15% over the next 10 years, reaching 30,400 by 2035.&nbsp;On the turboprop side, the forecast is more muted with an expected CAGR of 0.28% and deliveries of 4,100, 88.5% of which will be single-engine models, through 2034. Dollar volume over that time will reach $24 billion.
For 2025, JetNet anticipates 825 new business jet deliveries, up 8% year over year, and 365 new turboprops, down 5%—supply chain dependent.
This comes as the OEMs are sustaining about a two-year backlog with supply chain constraints, slow certifications, and labor shortages hindering a scale-up in production. For that reason, JetNet believes deliveries will increase more toward the back half of the forecast, Vincent said.
It also follows the recent passage of 100% expensing for business aircraft —the so-called bonus depreciation— with the latest IQ survey revealing that more than half of the respondents said the return of the tax change would increase the likelihood of purchasing a new aircraft in the next 12 months.
As far as overall sentiment, the quarter-over-quarter change was marked. In the second quarter, 51.9% of respondents were pessimistic about the current market conditions for business aviation, while only 34.4% believed the market was past the low point; this represented a net optimism of -17.5%. In Q3, however, net optimism jumped to a +28.4% with 57.9% of respondents now saying the market is past the low point and 29.5% still believing it is on the downturn. The net optimism metric was at the highest level since the third quarter of 2022.
The optimism curve has trended up in all the global regions, “That's a really good indication for the year-end,” Vincent said. Europe is actually leading the charge on optimism, he added, fueled by significant wealth transfer and the fact that many have yet to discover business aviation.
“We are seeing several key indicators pointing to the health of the market—customer sentiment, preowned jet sales year to date, flying aircraft, order backlogs, book-to-bills, and improved aircraft purchase intent, albeit the latter still at a somewhat subdued level,” Vincent said.
As for the preowned market, jet transactions were up 10% YOY through July 31 as inventory remained flat.
Despite the bullish business aviation market outlook, JetNet cautions that economic growth has moderated in most key markets and geopolitical risks remain high. Further, tariff uncertainties remain problematic.
In the latest survey, 43.8% said they either strongly or somewhat agreed that tariff uncertainties may delay purchase plans over the next year. However, that was slightly better than the 52.4% in the second-quarter survey.
“What we've seen is we do not have a transatlantic war,” Vincent said. “We thought we were goning to head to a transatlantic war just after the immediate effects of the tariff announcements came in, and that didn't happen.&nbsp;That's good. But we do have a lot of geopolitical risks.”
Even so, the underlying sentiment remains strong with 64.1% of survey takers strongly agreeing that without business aviation, their organization would be less successful and less profitable.
Meanwhile, when asked about aviation industry investment opportunities, MRO led the pack with 23.3% saying they would place money there. This was followed by hybrid engines at 14.8% and FBOs at 14%. Just 3% said they would invest in electric aircraft. Also, the survey still reveals a reluctance towards sustainable aviation fuel, with nearly half, 47.6%, saying they disagree that they would consider flying with SAF in the next year. Another 18.7% was uncertain.

News and developments about airplanes, helicopters and unmanned air vehicles used in all varieties of operations, including airlines, military, business, commercial, general aviation and private.

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