Managing Editor, Leeham News & Analysis

Scott Hamilton

Airbus and Boeing face a challenge that is good news and bad news. The good news: Demand for most of their airplanes is high. The bad news: neither can meet the demand.
Delivery slots are sold out for the A320neo and 737 MAX families into the next decade. Widebody delivery positions are also increasingly scarce. And the supply chain continues to fall short, while engine makers still struggle to deliver durable and reliable products.
Airbus has another problem that’s not so good news. Demand for its smallest airplane, the A220, has stalled. This is due in part to ongoing troubles with the Pratt &amp; Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) engines, which have grounded nearly 80 aircraft out of a delivered fleet of 451—an 18% AOG (aircraft on ground) rate. A handful of A220s have been scrapped to monetize for parts rather than be stored indefinitely, running up storage fees, awaiting new engines.
Another reason sales have stalled: The A220, which was formerly the Bombardier CSeries, is essentially an orphan airplane. Only 118 A220-100s have been ordered out of 941, or 12.5%. Some key airlines, such as Air France and Delta Air Lines, want a stretched version, commonly called the A220-500 (a name not adopted by Airbus). But adding to the family requires achieving profitability for the program. Airbus hasn’t accomplished this goal. To do so, suppliers must cut their prices, and the production rate must jump from the current 6-8 a month to 14/mo—a tall order given the lack of orders and the A220-300’s orphan status.
It’s a classic chicken-and-egg conundrum.
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